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The Barrie real estate market has rebounded at a significant pace since last year despite rising interest rates and a slowing economy. But can this component of the Ontario housing sector maintain its momentum in the home stretch of 2023 and heading into 2024?
This is the $824,900 question for market observers. According to the Barrie & District Association of REALTORS® Inc., residential property sales soared nearly 24 per cent year-over-year in June, totalling more than 400 units. Year-to-date, home sales have totalled just below 2,100 units, down 14.3 per cent from the same time a year ago.
On a historical basis, home sales were 14 percent below the five-year average and more than 18 per cent below the ten-year average for this time of the year.
But what about prices?
They have eased from last year, real estate association data show. In June, the MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) tumbled at an annualized rate of 8.5 per cent to $824,300. The average price of homes sold in June dipped nearly one per cent to $906,303.
All three residential property categories declined to finish off the second quarter of 2023:
· Single-Family Homes: -7.9 per cent to $871,600
· Townhomes: -8.8 per cent to $602,800
· Apartments: -9.4 per cent to $549,100
“Home sales have been coming in relatively stronger over the past three months compared to earlier in the year, slowly building momentum in the recovery,” said Lindsay Percy, the Chair of the Barrie & District Association of REALTORS®, in a statement. “A surge in new listings in June helped to sustain this momentum, although whether this is the beginning of a reversal in the downward trend in new supply or just a one-off remains to be seen. The return of sellers to the market in meaningful numbers would be a welcome sight given falling inventory levels and rising prices.”
But do these numbers mean a lucrative opportunity exists in the Barrie real estate market for prospective homebuyers and investors?
Investing in Barrie Real Estate: A Lucrative OpportunityThe latest data presented a mixed picture of the Barrie real estate market, as industry experts have been looking at multiple trends that may support price growth or weigh on the upward trend in the last three months:
· Supply
· The return of buyers and sellers
· Interest rates
In June, the number of new residential listings plunged close to 26 percent, totalling 846 new units. Active residential listings declined more than 22 per cent, with 914 units on the market to finish June. Historically, new listings were nearly nine percent below the five-year average, and residential listings were more than nine percent below the five-year average.
In addition, months of inventory dropped from 3.6 months in June 2022 to 2.3 in June 2023. This measurement assesses the number of months it would take to exhaust current inventories at the present rate of sales activity.
At the same time, new housing construction activity levels have been exceptional this year. According to the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC), housing starts surged 53 per cent year-over-year to 466 units in June. Year-to-date, housing starts have climbed by 25 per cent from June 2022 to 1,462 units.
Meanwhile, the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) tightening cycle could be nearing its end, but it might not mean that interest rates will begin falling before the year is over. In July, the central bank raised the benchmark policy rate by 25 basis points to five percent, the highest level in over two decades. With the consumer price index (CPI) coming in higher than expected in July, there are expectations that the BoC might raise interest rates at the September policy meeting, especially considering that officials do not believe inflation will return to the institution’s two percent target until the middle of 2025.
This, of course, results in higher borrowing costs for homebuyers. According to Statistics Canada, the CMHC five-year conventional fixed-rate mortgage rate increased to 5.99 per cent last month, up from 5.85 per cent in June.
That said, despite rising mortgage rates, experts believe that homeowners can withstand the current rising-rate environment, even nearly as all of the rate increases since early 2022 have begun to be felt.
“Next summer will be an important milestone for the Canadian housing market, as we head into the period where the bulk of interest rates increases from last year start to be felt. The sharpest increases in rates occurred in the summer of 2022, and it typically takes up to a year for the economy to feel their full impact,” wrote Mathieu Laberge, a partner and leader of economics and policy at KPMG Canada. “Nevertheless, Canadians are in a good position to manage their personal finances and exposure to the housing market: the Canadian labour market remains steady, meaning Canadians have the possibility to make trade-offs between discretionary and nondiscretionary spending. And inflation is keeping to its moderating trend, recently dipping below three per cent.”
Ultimately, with the Barrie real estate market seeing a wave of buyers and sellers, Simcoe County could maintain a lucrative investment opportunity climate.
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Many prospective homebuyers often think that the only costs they will incur are the home’s asking price and interest on the mortgage. However, there are additional costs involved, especially in certain jurisdictions across the country. Mortgage origination fees, closing costs, taxes, and other charges are the norm. And when buying a home in the Toronto real estate market, the land transfer tax is a hefty levy you must budget for – and the municipal portion of the tax is due to rise as of January 1, 2024.
Regardless of the property type, all homebuyers will be subjected to a land transfer tax on closing.
There are five tax brackets that you need to be aware of:
Up to $55,000: 0.5 per cent Up to $250,000: one per cent Up to $400,000: 1.5 per cent Up to $2 million: two per cent More than $2 million: 2.5 per centSo, for example, if you are buying a $950,000 detached house in the downtown core, be prepared to dole out nearly $31,000. The good news is that you will receive a rebate if you are a first-time homebuyer. So, as another instance, if you are purchasing a $700,000 condo suite, the land transfer tax will be nearly $21,000, but the rebate will reduce it to below $13,000.
Regardless of any tax brackets or rebates, new research has found that the land transfer tax is a barrier to entry for many households attempting to achieve the dream of home ownership.
Land Transfer Tax Impacting Home-Buying DecisionsIs the land transfer tax impacting your home-buying process?
According to a new survey conducted by Leger on behalf of RE/MAX Canada, more than one-quarter of Canadians (28 per cent) say that the land transfer tax has affected their decision to participate in the real estate market. Young Canadians are most impacted by the levy, with 40 per cent of Generation Z and 35 per cent of millennials reporting that the land transfer tax had a role in their journey toward home ownership. The penalty had less of an impact on older generations, including Generation X (26 per cent) and baby boomers (21 per cent).
Ultimately, this has eroded housing affordability at a time when home ownership is becoming out of reach for many younger households.
Recent data highlight that detached home sales skyrocketed in York Region in the second quarter of 2023, rising more than 100 per cent from the first quarter. One of the reasons? Buyers in this part of the housing market do not face the municipal land transfer tax.
Because many facets are pricing younger families out of the housing market, policymakers are exploring various mechanisms to bolster homebuying opportunities, including the land transfer tax.
Are Changes Coming?The City of Toronto recently published its revenue tools report assessing different property tax approaches. Officials contend that property tax is a more stable and fair form of taxation for city hall than the land transfer tax. When North America’s fourth-largest city first introduced the first-time land transfer tax rebate, it was introduced to mirror the average price for a residential property in Toronto.
In 2008, the average price for a home in the city was $400,000. Believe it or not, officials have not raised this threshold, meaning that very few buyers qualify for this rebate since the going price for a house is north of $1 million and about $750,000 for condominiums.
That said, the Toronto Region Real Estate Board welcomes any proposal that advances the opportunity for more people to enter the housing market.
“Our position has always been that the concept of a Land Transfer Tax doesn’t benefit homebuyers, due to the unfair nature of the tax which has to be paid upfront. With the City raising MLTT rates for the higher-end housing market as a revenue tool, it must also consider helping first-time home buyers who are struggling to buy a property,” said TRREB President Paul Baron in a statement. “Council’s decision to approve a graduated increase of the MLTT on properties over $3 million may impact our housing challenges and supply shortage in a negative way by deterring move-up buyers from freeing up supply.”
Not only Toronto is looking at making changes to property tax policy.
The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) is urging the province of British Columbia to abandon the property transfer tax, or PTT, on any home that costs under $755,000 for both new and resale.
Like Toronto, it is challenging to come across any dwelling in Vancouver priced below $800,000.
“You could look at this and say, ‘Should there even be a threshold? If we’re talking about getting first-time buyers into the market, why does it really matter?’ We’re trying to be reasonable and give the government something they can work with,” said Andrew Lis, the director of economics of the REBGV.
The real estate association also suggests establishing a provincial rebate program for the GST mandated on new rental construction and an “ultra-low-cost” loan program for rental property developers.
Meanwhile, there is skepticism that the B.C. government would consider abolishing the levy since it generated more than $2 billion in revenues from this tax in the current fiscal year.
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